By Joe Smentek, MSGA Executive Director

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is a much maligned and often misunderstood arm of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). NASS’ mission is “to provide timely, accurate, and useful statistics in service to U.S. agriculture.” Despite this mission, at countless small-town cafes and in many farm organization meetings, you can regularly hear criticism of NASS and their “guesses.” Many of these sentiments result from NASS weekly crop production reports that can swing the market for better or worse.

This skepticism is understandable on a number of levels. If you are a farmer with local weather conditions depressing yields in your county or even state, you are looking for a good price since, in your experience, the yields won’t be there. However, when you see NASS announce a record U.S. crop, and prices dip, you are left wondering what exactly they are looking at.

To find out exactly what goes into NASS’ work, I joined Minnesota Soybean Growers Association farmer leaders (including current Vice President Ryan Mackenthun, Treasurer Rose Wendinger and Director Bob Worth) in September 2023 on a visit to USDA’s Washington, D.C. headquarters in to get a rundown from Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board. Honig described the work done by the board and at NASS. He explained to the group why they do what they do and the importance of the data for every sector from the markets to national security. The group left with an acceptance of the difficulty of the task given to NASS, although the farmers remained a bit dubious with NASS’ opinion. But our group was invited to come back sometime to experience a “Lockup,” where the controversial numbers are calculated, discussed and released.

“The biggest thing you can do is convince your neighbors, friends and family to take a few moments to fill out the survey,” Honig told MSGA directors. “Information is power, and if we stop, the big players are going to keep doing it. We’re the only objective entity doing this work.”

In October 2024, I took Honig up on his offer and attended the release of the Crop Production Report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report. The public was welcomed into the USDA at about 10:30 a.m. in anticipation of the release at noon. After making it through USDA security, we needed to leave absolutely any device capable of transmitting data in secure lockers. No phones, smart watches or computers are allowed into the lockup. These rules date back to a 1905 incident that involved insider trading in the cotton markets when an individual on the inside was caught transmitting messages through window shade placement to an outsider who would then trade on the information. They were caught when some information changed, and the outside man complained that his inside information was incorrect. Not the smartest way to go about engaging in an illegal scheme.

The Lockup

After being given a briefing on the importance of the reports, and the methodology of collecting the data, we were permitted to enter the actual Lockup area. Security is of the utmost importance at NASS – and it shows. We were brought through a second security check point and checked while entering the Lockup area for transmitting devices, and once inside they have technology looking for signals from transmitting devices. Even old school hand signals are prevented by having guests enter a double set of doors that prevent a direct line of sight from the outside to inside the Lockup. Once inside we were given a tour of the Lockup area and shown the desks where the experts meet and come up with their estimates. While we were welcomed in at 10:30, the employees of NASS had been in Lockup for much longer. Depending on the crops involved in the report, they can arrive anywhere from 11 p.m. the night before to 2 a.m. the day of the Lockup.

During the Lockup, the experts look at operator surveys, field surveys and geospatial analysis to come up with estimates. We were shown what some of this data consisted of and how it is calculated. The first, operator surveys, is obvious. Asking farmer producers what they are seeing and what they expect based on their experience. This data is crucial. Answering the surveys gives NASS the data points they need to estimate correctly. The second set of data is provided by staff and contractors on the ground going to fields and looking at the crop themselves. They look at the crop at different stages and use their experience and expertise to estimate what they are seeing will affect yield during harvest. Finally, looking at the satellite images and geospatial data gives the experts in the room another data set to see what may be happening based on weather or other events. The big discussion at our Lockup visit was the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton, which had just passed through different southern growing areas.

Inside the Lockup, a totally separate server system allows the experts to sit in a room with a bank of monitors and look at the data together. After they look at all the data, they each independently determine an answer as to what a yield may mean in the area of concern or as a whole. They then present their number and defend it or amend it based on the questions and concerns raised by their peers. Members of the lockdown said that there is not really a bias they see to individuals. No one tends to be a glass half full and someone else a glass half empty. The room of experts works together until they have one number. Once the numbers are set, the on-site publisher gets to work getting the necessary paper copies of the reports set to be released prepared.

Shortly before noon, we were seated in a room awaiting the arrival of USDA Sec. Vilsack. Once he entered the room, the show was on. He welcomed the crowd, explained the importance of the reports and thanked the producers who grow the crops. He then signed the reports and turned the floor over to the experts, who explained the numbers and what they meant. After the USDA crop report was over, the world report was released to the crowd. The secretary left after the formal presentation, but the show was far from over.

Dr. Seth Meyer, chief economist of USDA, grilled the assembled experts on their numbers. It was hard not to be impressed with Dr. Meyer’s knowledge of factors that could alter the numbers and the estimates. This was only outdone by the subject matter experts’ answers to his grilling on how they considered the factor he brought up and how it played a role in their estimates. The discussion showed that the cafe chat of throwing a dart at a dart board to come up with the numbers could not be farther from the truth. The stage of the crop during a hurricane, the patterns of migratory birds, the effects of regional drought, and on and on. A seemingly countless number of factors are considered in the room to get to these numbers.

While we might not always agree with, or like, the numbers NASS releases, there is no doubt that the experts at NASS are working hard to get the numbers as correct as possible. They are true professionals doing critical, unbiased behind-the-scenes work on behalf of producers. The dedication and amount of work that goes into the numbers is readily apparent when you visit the Lockup. As the executive director of MSGA, an association that represents the interests of our state’s nearly 26,000 soybean farmers, I encourage producers to help with this accuracy by playing their part in getting their data to NASS and by doing their best to be as accurate as possible with the information at their disposal. NASS is required by law to keep every survey respondent’s information confidential. Better numbers help the experts produce more accurate reports.

Let’s help them help us.

Joe Smentek has served as executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association since 2018. Contact him at jsmentek@mnsoybean.com